The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) recently hosted a webinar titled “Climate Models Underestimate the Global Decline in Ocean Primary Production”, shedding light on the critical issue of ocean productivity decline due to climate change. The session was led by CSIR principal researcher Dr. Tommy Ryan-Keogh alongside CSIR chief researcher Dr. Sandy Thomalla, in collaboration with Professor Alessandro Tagliabue from the University of Liverpool. While Dr. Ali Imran participated and represented Saint Pierre Center for International Security.
During the webinar, the researchers presented their groundbreaking study published in Communications Earth & Environment on 1 February 2025. Their research, based on 26 years of remote sensing data (1998-2023), reveals that current climate models underestimate the global decline in ocean productivity resulting from ocean warming.
Ocean productivity, driven by phytoplankton, plays a crucial role in regulating the global climate and supporting vital ecosystem services, including fisheries. However, climate models have yet to reach a consensus on how productivity will be affected—some predicting increases, while others foresee declines. The study titled “Global Declines in Net Primary Production Underestimated by Climate Models” aims to bridge this gap.
The researchers developed a model ranking scheme to assess how well different climate models represent the relationships between ocean productivity and environmental factors. Their findings indicate that even the best-performing models underestimate future declines in ocean productivity, predicting much smaller changes than what is currently being observed.
“We believe that even the best-ranking models are underestimating the sensitivity of productivity declines to ocean warming,” stated Dr. Ryan-Keogh.
The study calls for the next generation of climate models to correct this underestimation to provide more accurate projections of ocean productivity decline. These refined models will likely project even greater declines in productivity, even under high-mitigation climate scenarios.
“It is important to note,” emphasized Dr. Thomalla, “that ocean productivity is not declining everywhere. Some regions, such as offshore waters, may experience slight increases, but when averaged globally, the trend is a significant decline.”
The webinar also highlighted the “Plankton Manifesto”, launched in 2024 by the United Nations Global Compact. This initiative aims to raise awareness of the threats to phytoplankton, advocating for immediate global recognition and protection measures. The manifesto will be presented at key international environmental conferences, including COP29 on Climate Change, COP16 on Biodiversity, and the United Nations Ocean Conference in Nice, France, in June 2025.
The webinar underscored the urgency of improving climate models to enhance confidence in assessing climate impacts on marine ecosystems. Researchers emphasized the need for collaborative efforts to explore new research areas and refine predictions for better climate action planning.
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