Richa Bhattarai is an emerging scholar and expert in the fields of international conflict management, counterterrorism, U.S. Foreign Policy, and Middle Eastern politics. Richa is a recipient of the prestigious American Association of University Women (AAUW) International Doctoral Fellowship Award for the year 2023-2024. She actively contributes her interest as an emerging expert at the Forum on the Arms Trade, focusing on the humanitarian, economic, and broader implications of arms transfers, security assistance, and weapons usage. Additionally, she is a valued contributor to the Iran 1400 Project. Currently a PhD candidate at Kennesaw State University, she is dedicated to exploring nuanced dimensions of diplomacy and U.S. foreign policy. She holds an MSc in Criminal Justice and an LLM specializing in international law, reflecting an academic journey marked by a blend of legal and social science disciplines. She has also been awarded Pro Bono Honors by Washburn University School of Law.
We all know that the situation in the Middle East has continued to descend into chaos in recent months, including the conflict in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis. The root causes of these conflicts cannot be separated from the factors of geopolitics and great power rivalry. Of course, the power of the United States and Iran in the Middle East should not be underestimated. In such a background, every U.S. interaction with Iran appears to be of critical importance. Based on the present security situation, we interviewed Ms. Richa Bhattarai for her view.
Review of Recent Events in Iran
The U.S. foreign policy toward Iran, specifically the Islamic Regime has become increasingly contentious and challenging. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the American Hostage Crisis, the relationship has been consistently strained with occasional informal collaboration when mutual threats or benefits arise. The primary reason for the U.S. administration's hostile attitude toward the Islamic Regime lies in its domestic political structure which contrasts sharply with the U.S. ideological commitment to democracy. For instance, refer to her article “Can a Woman Become President in Iran? It’s Complicated. ”
In light of the recent events in Iran, referring to the death of President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19, 2024. This has flashed curiosity about the outcome of the upcoming presidential election where reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner candidate Saeed Jalili are contending amid a low voter turnout of 60 percent. Despite competing against two other hardliners Pezeshkian has garnered significant interest within the reformist faction, securing the majority of votes. However, in this initial vote, no candidate secured an outright win. Ms. Bhattarai believes the impact of this event on U.S. foreign policy depends significantly on the upcoming second round scheduled for July 5, 2024. Masoud Pezeshkian emphasizes support for women's rights, increased social freedoms, diplomatic engagement with the West, and economic reform. These priorities could potentially shape future U.S. policy considerations toward Iran. However, it is important to note that Saeed Jalili’s tenure as a former nuclear negotiator with the U.S. administration was evident not only by his staunch defense of Iran's nuclear rights but also by a measured scholarly approach that was slightly distinct from the more confrontational attitude. Continuous observation of how the election results unfold and their potential implications for the future trajectory of U.S.-Iran relations is necessary.
The Future Path of U.S.-Iranian Relations
What must say at present the U.S.-Iran relationship is influenced not only by the ongoing election in Iran and the upcoming election in the U.S.—but also by unfolding events across the Middle East. Following October 7, 2023, significant incidents occurred where both countries while avoiding direct confrontation have been adversely impacted by their respective support for regional actors and groups. In the evolving discourse on U.S.-Iran animosities and efforts to foster trust—the focus has increasingly turned to the growing involvement of regional proxies. The current situation appears tense. However, Ms. Bhattarai emphasizes taking a retrospective approach. Addressing the root causes of grievances between countries is crucial, rather than involving multiple actors which can detract from addressing the core issues causing tension. Direct collaboration and interaction based on mutual interests between both the U.S. and Iran could alleviate the need for constant external involvement and other factions. Public diplomacy also serves as a tool to minimize the tension. Some scholars also advocate for cultural and sports diplomacy, which could also serve as a tool to minimize enmities.
Different National Perspectives of the Terrorism that Shapes the Geopolitical Context of the Middle East
To begin with, it is crucial to identify who the terrorists are where violence is often used for political, ideological, and religious purposes. Generally, there's a broad consensus that terrorism is primarily executed by non-state actors who target civilians or non-combatants to instill fear and achieve political objectives. However, to answer who terrorists are the U.S. and Iran have differing interpretations. This divergence in designations significantly impacts their respective counterterrorism strategies and foreign policies. The U.S. Department of State has designated Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism since 1984. In contrast, Iran refers to the non-state groups it supports as 'The Resistance Front,' positioning them as entities that oppose Western influence, particularly from the United States. Therefore, when discussing terrorism' it is crucial to understand the differing designations and perspectives these two state actors hold.
Hence, the establishment of the Islamic Regime in Iran and its subsequent hostile relationship with the U.S. administration has significantly altered the dynamics of the Middle East. On one hand, the Islamic regime views its actions as resistance against U.S. strategic dominance in the region. On the other hand, the U.S. administration accuses Iran of providing a safe space for groups that it designates as “terrorists” who are perpetuating chaos and instability in the region. This dichotomy has led to increased tensions and contributed to a complex geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
Potential Impact of U.S.-Iranian Relations on International Security
While observing the current dynamics between the U.S. and Iran, several key areas emerge where international security could be significantly impacted. One major concern is the escalating proxy conflicts which are fueled by both countries supporting opposite fractions, as mentioned above—aligned with their respective interests. If this trend continues, it poses a heightened risk of exacerbating regional instability, intensifying humanitarian crises, and potentially escalating into a more acute catastrophe in the foreseeable future.
Secondly, the nuclear issue is critical to address. Because of the continued hostility that is hampering diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran, it is crucial to revive or replace the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Failure to manage this nuclear issue on time could increase the possibility of escalating into a greater crisis for which neither party is adequately prepared. Additionally, energy security is another area that might be constantly affected. As you know Persian Gulf is a crucial artery for global oil supply, hence the heightened U.S.-Iran tensions could threaten the stability of energy markets which might lead to price volatility and global economic repercussions.
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